Predicting the potential for zoonotic transmission and host associations for novel viruses.
Pandit PS., Anthony SJ., Goldstein T., Olival KJ., Doyle MM., Gardner NR., Bird B., Smith WA., Wolking D., Gilardi K., Monagin C., Kelly T., Uhart M., Epstein JH., Machalaba C., Rostal MK., Dawson P., Hagan E., Sullivan A., Li H., Chmura AA., Latinne A., Lange C., O'Rourke T., Olson SH., Keatts L., Mendoza AP., Perez A., de Paula CD., Zimmerman D., Valitutto M., LeBreton M., McIver D., Islam A., Duong V., Mouiche M., Shi Z., Mulembakani P., Kumakamba C., Ali M., Kebede N., Tamoufe U., Bel-Nono S., Camara A., Pamungkas J., Coulibaly K., Abu-Basha E., Kamau J., Silithammavong S., Desmond J., Hughes T., Shiilegdamba E., Aung O., Karmacharya D., Nziza J., Ndiaye D., Gbakima A., Sijali Z., Wacharapluesadee S., Robles EA., Ssebide B., Suzán G., Aguirre LF., Solorio MR., Dhole TN., Nga NTT., Hitchens PL., Joly DO., Saylors K., Fine A., Murray S., Karesh W., Daszak P., Mazet JAK., PREDICT Consortium None., Johnson CK.
Host-virus associations have co-evolved under ecological and evolutionary selection pressures that shape cross-species transmission and spillover to humans. Observed virus-host associations provide relevant context for newly discovered wildlife viruses to assess knowledge gaps in host-range and estimate pathways for potential human infection. Using models to predict virus-host networks, we predicted the likelihood of humans as hosts for 513 newly discovered viruses detected by large-scale wildlife surveillance at high-risk animal-human interfaces in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Predictions indicated that novel coronaviruses are likely to infect a greater number of host species than viruses from other families. Our models further characterize novel viruses through prioritization scores and directly inform surveillance targets to identify host ranges for newly discovered viruses.